No Data, No Jobs

As the United States enters November under the continuing government shutdown, the absence of official economic data is proving more damaging than expected. Nearly 2 million federal workers remain furloughed or unpaid, sending ripples through local economies and undermining consumer stability. With no government data releases, the world’s largest economy is effectively flying blind.

This first Friday in November should have brought the Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Instead, silence. Investors, businesses, and policymakers are left to speculate. Private estimates from Challenger, Gray & Christmas suggest close to 100,000 layoffs were announced in October—a sharp 25 percent increase from the previous month. Major firms including Amazon, Target, Charter, and Paramount have all announced cuts. Yet new hires offset part of those losses, and the net labor trend is unknown without federal validation.

Markets dislike uncertainty more than bad news. Equities have begun to falter, with broad indices down more than two percent this week. Traders point to data scarcity as a core problem: pricing risk becomes guesswork without verified indicators. A recent comment by hedge fund titan Ken Griffin drives this home: “You can’t manage money in the dark. Uncertainty itself becomes the biggest risk factor.”

Structural shifts are also at play. Immigration restrictions have reduced workforce growth in sectors where foreign-born labor was essential. Net migration, once over a million annually, has slipped below 900,000. That means fewer workers in agriculture, hospitality, and logistics—industries already pressured by technology-driven change.

Meanwhile, artificial intelligence is reinforcing this new dynamic. Research from MIT and Stanford finds that over one-third of firms deploying generative AI tools lowered headcount within six months. These companies saw efficiency gains of more than twelve percent, but also eliminated thousands of traditional roles. Productivity may rise, but job creation no longer keeps pace with output.

Andre Lajeunesse of TGG, who has worked 35 years in finance and headed global markets at major institutions and now runs a family office, believes that short-term turbulence has its uses. “This shutdown has produced volatility that we like,” he observes, “although not much fun for the general public.” Lajeunesse notes that liquidity flows from uncertainty, providing opportunity for trading desks, but warns that “persistent governance dysfunction eventually prices into valuation models.” His view captures the professional calm of someone who has seen cycles repeat, yet understands that this time, data scarcity itself has become a market variable.

The Federal Reserve remains the fulcrum. Inflation is holding around three percent—above target but stable—while economic growth, powered by AI-related investment, still shows strength. Blue Chip forecasts place third-quarter GDP growth near 2.8 percent, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate is closer to 4 percent. Chair Jerome Powell faces a tightening dilemma: risk inflation with rate cuts or risk recession by standing firm.

The absence of current labor figures leaves his decision unanchored. With each week of disrupted data collection, models lose accuracy. Historically, every two weeks of federal shutdown has reduced quarterly GDP by about 0.1 percentage point. Should this extend into December, total growth drag could surpass 0.4 points—enough to darken forecasts well into 2026.

Across Asia, the effects are emerging in trade and market sentiment. China’s exports to the U.S. are already down more than 7 percent year on year. Japan’s Nikkei has weakened, and India’s IT sector reports client delays tied to U.S. fiscal uncertainty. In ASEAN economies such as Vietnam and Malaysia, factory managers await American orders that may no longer arrive if consumer confidence deteriorates over the holidays. Regional currencies have also come under renewed pressure as investors move toward dollars for safety.

By extension, the global economy depends not only on U.S. spending power but on U.S. transparency. Data is a kind of infrastructure: it connects lenders to borrowers, savers to investors, and policies to outcomes. When distribution of that information breaks down, trust follows.

If the current impasse continues, the economic cost will go beyond furloughs and missed paychecks. The true loss lies in credibility—of governance, of markets, and of the idea that America’s financial system runs on facts rather than forecasts. The world watches not just to see when Washington reopens, but whether its confidence in the data can be restored.

Solomon Grey Capital, with over 20 million global readers, continues to monitor fiscal developments and their implications for long-term investment strategy.